Liam Coen's Jacksonville rebuild: the year-two verdict
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Jacksonville won four games in 2024 and 13 in 2025. Liam Coen became the first rookie head coach in NFL history to win 13 games after inheriting a team that had managed four or fewer. He did it without a new quarterback, a new number one receiver or a rebuilt offensive line.
The question was never whether year one worked. It is whether any of it repeats, and the answer starts arriving in London, where the Jaguars play two home games this autumn. The Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Odds for Wembley on 18 October 2026 are the first real read on it.
The offence was the real gain
Jacksonville's franchise record for points in a season stood at 417, set in 2017. Coen's first team scored 474, sixth in the NFL. Trevor Lawrence threw for 4,007 yards and accounted for a franchise-record 38 touchdowns, 29 passing and nine rushing, the third highest total in the league.
The efficiency never matched the volume. Lawrence completed 60.9% of his passes at a rating of 91.0, which is respectable rather than elite. Coen was manufacturing points around a quarterback who had not yet become the player Jacksonville drafted first overall in 2021.
The takeaways are the part that worries people
Anthony Campanile's defence forced 31 turnovers after the 2024 side managed nine. No team in NFL history had reached 30 takeaways the year after finishing in single figures. Jacksonville converted them into 110 points, more than any other team, and led the league in run defence at 85.6 yards allowed per game.
Turnover totals are the least stable figure in football, and the Jaguars have lost the player at the centre of theirs. Devin Lloyd, a second-team All-Pro with five interceptions, signed a three-year, $45 million contract with Carolina. Jacksonville replaced him with nobody of note, added no new starters in free agency and had no first-round pick, having traded it for Travis Hunter in 2025.
The market has already made its call
That is why the wider American football odds board reads the way it does. Jacksonville's win total sits at 8.5, four and a half below what they actually managed, and they are second favourites for the AFC South behind Houston, the team they beat to the division. ESPN's Football Power Index projects 9-8 and a 52.4% chance of a return to the play-offs.
Coen has not argued with any of it. Speaking after the schedule release in May, he told reporters the team had plenty of room to improve and that improvement might not look like 13 wins again.
London is where the verdict lands
The fixture list does the rest. Three of the first five games come against 2025 division winners. Both London fixtures are home games rather than the usual one-home, one-away arrangement, so Philadelphia at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on 11 October is followed by Houston at Wembley a week later.
The case for the offence carrying more of the load rests on two players. Brian Thomas Jr. caught 48 of 91 targets for 707 yards and two touchdowns in 14 games last year, having gone for 1,282 yards and 10 scores as a rookie in 2024. Travis Hunter, the second overall pick in 2025, is back from knee surgery and Jacksonville still plan to use him on both sides of the ball.
Jacksonville have not reached the play-offs in consecutive seasons since 1999. Coen's rebuild will not be judged on 13 wins. It will be judged on whether he can do it twice.