The Columbus Aviators travel to Birmingham in desperate need of a W heading into the final game of week 8. Columbus is the only 2-win team remaining after Houston won on Saturday. Birmingham is also in critical need of a victory as they now sit 1-game behind Louisville for the final playoff position.
Game Details:
Date/Location: Sunday, May 17 / Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL
Kickoff Time: 1:00 PM ET, 10:00 AM PT
Channel: FOX
Odds:
Spread: Columbus +2.5 (-110), Birmingham -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Columbus +115, Birmingham -135
Over/Under: 45.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Columbus Aviators (2-5):
The Aviators fell 20-31 in St. Louis last week, putting up a respectable fight but just didn’t quite have that next gear offensively to keep pace. Columbus has been run-heavy this season and currently leads the league in rushing yards with 971 over 7 games with 11 touchdowns, as well as the most rushes per game at 28.9.
This week is the final away game for the Aviators, and they need to do something they have not done all season, win on the road.
Birmingham Stallions (3-4):
Birmingham picked up a big overtime victory over Dallas last week, 21-17, to move into the final playoff position. They have dropped down to 5th place following the Louisville Kings’ victory on Saturday, but will tie their record again if they defeat the Aviators this week. The Stallions control their own destiny right now as they hold the tiebreaker with Louisville, having defeated them earlier in the season.
Aviators Keys to the Game
Establish the Run Game Early
The Aviators have been a run-heavy team that wears down opponents by pounding the rock. Controlling the time of possession and extending the time the Stallions’ offense is on the sidelines will put more pressure on Birmingham.
Pressure on DTR
Defensive ends Kenny Willekes and Ron Stone Jr. need to get Dorian Thompson-Robinson early to disrupt rhythm and force mistakes. We have seen DTR make some solid plays this season, but we have also seen some turnover worthy throws.
Stop the Run
Birmingham’s offensive line play has not been consistent in their pass protection and run blocking this season. On the other hand, Columbus has not been consistent at stopping the run. Columbus needs to limit the rushing game to put pressure on DTR.
No Turnovers
Columbus has been in a lot of close games this season, with some impactful turnovers along the way. They need to not give their possessions away early through turnovers against Birmingham.
Aviators to Watch
8 QB Jalan McClendon
McClendon has completed 135 of his 194 passes (69.6%) for 1,225 yards and 8 touchdowns with 4 interceptions.
RB John Lovett
Lovett leads the team in rushing yards, having rushed 65 times for 282 yards (4.3 average) and 2 touchdowns with 13 missed tackles along the way.
Zaquandre White has also been impressive with 50 rushes for 259 yards (4.5 average) with 16 missed tackles along the way and 12 receptions for 70 yards with 5 missed tackles on his receptions.
WR Tay Martin
Martin leads the team in receiving, having caught 35 of his 41 targets for 396 yards with 2 touchdowns. He has the most missed tackles on receptions over the first 7 weeks of the season, by my tracking, with 9.
48 DE Kenny Willekes
Willekes has recorded 29 total tackles over 7 games, including 3.5 sacks. He has an additional 35 pressures past a blocker by my tracking over the first 7 weeks, which was 7th best in that category. He has 18 total stops (9th best over 7 weeks), all of which were against the run.
56 DE Ron Stone Jr.
Stone Jr. has recorded 23 total tackles, including 4 sacks. He has 34 additional pressures past a blocker (8th best in that category over 7 weeks) and 12 total stops (tied for 25th), all of which were against the run.
Stallions to Watch
QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson
DTR has made some solid plays this season, completing 61 of his 99 passes for 762 yards with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. His rate of turnover-worthy throws has been a little on the high side, with 7.8% of his adjusted attempts being turnover-worthy by my tracking.
9 RB Tyrion Davis-Price
Tyrion Davis-Price was the busiest running back for the Stallions last week, rushing 12 times for 45 yards (3.8 average). He has rushed 30 times this season for 102 yards (3.4 average) with 6 missed tackles along the way. He has also caught 9 passes for 91 yards over his 5 games.
WR Jaydon Mickens
Mickens is 2nd in the league in receiving yards, having caught 38 of his 48 targets for 486 yards and 2 touchdowns with 3 missed tackles along the way.
LB Tae Crowder
Crowder is 2nd in the league in total tackles despite not having yet played his 8th game with 54, and has an interception. Crowder is tied for the 3rd most total stops in the league thus far by my tracking, with 21, 15 of which came against the run and 6 against the pass.
LB Kyahva Tezino
Tezino is tied fr 4th in the league in total tackles with 48, including 2 tackles for a loss. He is tied for 9th in total stops by my tracking, with 18, 16 of which were run stops.
Depth Charts, Injuries, Inactives
Score Prediction:
I predict the Columbus Aviators to win 27-20.