The United Bowl is this weekend, pitting D.C. against Louisville. Here's a look at who has the edge in each area.
When D.C. has the ball
Run Game
D.C. has been effective at times with all three of its backs. Any one of Deon Jackson, Abram Smith or Xazavian Valladay can break free for big runs or grind out tough yardage. The Defenders ran the ball 36 times last week and especially with Jason Bean at quarterback, expect them to be a run-first team against Louisville as well. The Kings must also account for called runs for Bean, or his scrambles that pick up chunks of yards.
Defensively, the Kings were sixth in the league in the regular season, allowing 115 yards per game on the ground. Jarveon Howard ran for 70 yards and a 4.7 per carry average against them last week. Louisville can win even if D.C. runs well - the Defenders ran for 218 yards in their previous matchup, a game the Kings won, 33-30. The best recipe for Louisville in this game would be to get out to an early lead that would neutralize D.C.'s run game and force Bean to beat them through the air. One of they key matchups will be talented Kings DT Travis Bell against the interior of D.C.'s offensive line.
Edge: Defenders
Pass Game
Bean came to life last week, performing as well as he has all year at a time D.C. needed it most. There are no shortage of weapons the Defenders can exploit in the passing game, and Offensive Coordinator Fred Kaiss is an experienced - and creative - enough play caller to put Bean in situations where he can be the most successful. Ultimately, though, it comes down to Bean replicating last week's performance and showing the kind of consistency he hasn't really shown yet this year.
Despite giving up nearly 200 yards passing per game, Louisville led the league in interceptions with 13. They added one more last week against the Battlehawks. Cam Dantzler and Corey Mayfield are their top corners. The familiarity Bean has with Louisville's defense - and vice versa - could be a factor here, one that I think probably favors the Kings. After all, they practiced against Bean during the pre-season. Defensive Player of the Year Cam Gill and the rest of Louisville's pass rushers will need to be disciplined against a running QB like Bean. He has the ability to neutralize the strength of the Louisville defense.
Edge: Kings
When Louisville has the ball
Run Game
The once-moribund rushing attack of the Kings was given new life with the addition of James Robinson and the reshuffling of its offensive line. It has now become a strength of the team. Both Robinson and Ian Wheeler broke long runs against St. Louis last week. That's not their bread-and-butter though; they're grind-it-out runners who do their best work between the tackles. They'll have to deal with a D.C. defense that will likely try to utilize run blitzes to put the Kings in disadvantageous down-and-distances.
D.C. has defended the run well for most of the season. Louisville was able to run for over 130 yards in both previous games against the Defenders, so they should come in confident they can run the ball effectively again. Chandler Rogers doesn't have the scrambling ability of his counterpart for D.C., though look for him to keep it on RPOs if D.C. defenders crash down on the edges the way St. Louis players did last week. Rogers didn't take advantage of that then; he could in the United Bowl.
Edge: Push
Pass Game
Chandler Rogers almost literally came out of nowhere - he was discovered at a UFL Showcase last off-season - to wrest the starting job away from Bean early in the season. He's not going to wow you with his arm, but he's accurate with the ball and his leadership has been lauded by coaches and teammates. Former Defender Lucky Jackson leads the weapons on offense that also includes Tarik Black and Isaiah Winstead. The key to the game might be the tight ends: Zach Davidson has had some big drops this year. If he can rein that in, and Tre' McKitty can also get involved, they could expose some mismatches against D.C. linebackers.
D.C. replaced starting safety Deontay Anderson with Kai Gray last week, a move that led to at least one Orlando touchdown. We'll see if D.C. stays with Gray this week. There are talented players on the outside in Gareon Conley and Deandre Baker but we've seen some big breakdowns from this group as well. Rogers doesn't put the ball in harm's way a lot so they're unlikely to get any turnovers gifted to them. Rogers can also extend plays with his legs, forcing D.C.'s defensive backfield to stick to their men. Coordinator Blake Williams likes to blitz to make the QBs uncomfortable; he could try that with Rogers here.
Edge: Kings
Special Teams
Both Matt McCrane of D.C. and Louisville's Tanner Brown made multiple field goals of beyond 60 yards this season. Brown was much more consistent, however, on his way to earning UFL Special Teams Player of the Year. Mac Brown and Paxton Brooks punted well, though Brooks also had one blocked this year and shanked a kick last week. Each team's return game can be electric at times. Tyler Hudson returned a kickoff for a touchdown for the Kings - against D.C. in fact. Field position will be critical in this game, so coverage units will be under intense pressure to limit return yardage.
Edge: Kings
Coaching
Last year's UFL Coach of the Year, Shannon Harris shed the interim tag on his way to earning the full-time head coaching gig with the Defenders this year. Last year, the team may have taken some by surprise. This year, they're the hunted, and D.C. still managed to make it to the title game, even without their star QB down the stretch. That's a testament to the staff Harris has been able to build and, in some cases, maintain from the Reggie Barlow era. Kaiss is one of the top assistants in the UFL and Defensive Coordinator Blake Williams prefers to follow his dad's footsteps in calling defenses by applying pressure to opposing quarterbacks.
Left for dead at 0-3, Chris Redman pulled the trigger on some big moves: trading his starting quarterback, releasing his starting running back and completely revamping the offensive line. Each of those moves turned out to be for the better and each played a major role in getting Louisville to this point. This run has been doubly impressive when you consider that Redman is a first-year head coach - and first-time coach at any pro or college level. Veteran OC Steve Logan has been able to be more creative with Chandler Rogers than he was with Jason Bean. Defensive Coordinator Jamie Sharper coached linebackers for D.C. the last few years, giving him unique insight into what Kaiss likes to do on offense.
Edge: Defenders
Intangibles
Audi Field is already a tough place to play for visiting teams. It's expected to be packed as D.C. lucked into playing a home game for the UFL Championship. For the Kings, they're playing with house money: No one expected them to be here, especially impressive when they were born out of the Memphis Showboats, who had struggled mightily the last two years. The experience D.C. players have in a championship game environment by virtue of their appearance here last year could be an important factor as well. Orlando showed just how difficult it is to go 3-0 against an opponent during the year; Louisville will be vying to do exactly that.
Edge: Defenders