Three of the four UFL playoff spots are filled. Orlando, St. Louis, and DC clinched their berths in Week 9. One spot is left, and Louisville and Birmingham are the only teams still alive for it.
Louisville controls its own destiny. The Kings clinch a playoff berth with one win in Week 10. The seeding for all four playoff teams also comes down to the final weekend. Here is the math.
UFL Standings Heading Into Week 10
Team | Record | Status |
|---|---|---|
Orlando Storm | 7-2 | Clinched |
St. Louis Battlehawks | 6-3 | Clinched |
Louisville Kings | 5-4 | In the race |
DC Defenders | 5-4 | Clinched |
4-5 | In the race | |
3-6 | Eliminated | |
Houston Gamblers | 3-6 | Eliminated |
3-6 | Eliminated |
Dallas, Houston, and Columbus were eliminated in Week 9. Each team sits at 3-6 and cannot reach a top-4 finish.
Louisville's Week 10 Game
Louisville closes the regular season at Columbus on Sunday at 6:00 PM ET on FOX. Columbus is 3-6 and was eliminated from playoff contention last week.
How Louisville Clinches: Three Ways In
Louisville locks up a playoff spot if any one of these three things happens.
1. Louisville beats Columbus. A win moves the Kings to 6-4. Birmingham can finish no better than 5-5. A 6-4 record beats a 5-5 record. Louisville is in. This is the path Louisville controls on its own.
2. Birmingham loses to Houston. If Birmingham loses on Saturday, the Stallions finish 4-6. Louisville finishes 5-5 or better no matter what. Louisville is in.
3. Orlando beats DC. The UFL's official Week 9 recap states Birmingham's playoff path requires an Orlando loss. If Orlando beats DC on Sunday, Birmingham is eliminated and Louisville claims the final spot.
Louisville needs just one of the three to fall its way.
The One Scenario Where Louisville Misses
Louisville drops out of the playoffs only if all three of these results happen in the same weekend:
Louisville loses to Columbus
Birmingham beats Houston
DC beats Orlando
Miss any one of those, and Louisville is in. All three must break against the Kings for Birmingham to take the spot.
Birmingham's Only Path
Birmingham's road is the exact mirror. The Stallions need a win over Houston plus losses by both Louisville and Orlando. The UFL confirmed this three-part scenario in its Week 9 recap. Birmingham has no other way in.
Week 10 Seeding Scenarios for the Playoff Teams
Three teams have clinched. Their seeds are not set. Week 10 sorts the full bracket, and the order carries weight: the top two seeds host home playoff games, while the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds open the postseason on the road.
The No. 1 Seed
Orlando holds the top seed. The Storm clinch the No. 1 seed with a win over DC, or with a St. Louis loss to Dallas.
A win moves Orlando to 8-2. No other team can reach eight wins, so 8-2 locks the top seed.
Orlando falls to the No. 2 seed only if two results land together: Orlando loses to DC and St. Louis beats Dallas. Both teams would finish 7-3, and the UFL tiebreaker procedure would set the order.
Orlando is guaranteed a top-2 seed and a home playoff game.
The No. 2 Seed
St. Louis locks a top-2 seed, and a home playoff game, with a win over Dallas. A win moves the Battlehawks to 7-3, a record only Orlando can match.
If St. Louis loses, the Battlehawks finish 6-4 and the No. 2 seed opens up. DC and Louisville can each finish 6-4. If St. Louis, DC, and Louisville all land at 6-4, the three teams are tied and the UFL tiebreaker procedure sets the order. A loss puts the home playoff game at risk: a drop to the No. 3 seed would send St. Louis on the road.
The No. 3 and No. 4 Seeds
DC has clinched, but the Defenders' seed is unsettled. DC can finish anywhere from the No. 2 seed to the No. 4 seed. A win over Orlando keeps a home playoff game in play, though the No. 2 seed would still run through the tiebreaker among the 6-4 teams. A DC loss leaves the Defenders at the No. 3 or No. 4 seed, and on the road.
The final playoff team, Louisville or Birmingham, can finish as the No. 3 or No. 4 seed. In one example, Louisville finishes No. 3 and DC drops to No. 4: Louisville beats Columbus, St. Louis beats Dallas, and DC loses to Orlando.
The No. 3 and No. 4 seeds both open the playoffs on the road. Same-record ties for those seeds are decided by the UFL tiebreaker procedure.
Week 10 UFL Schedule
Day | Game | Time (ET) | Network |
|---|---|---|---|
Fri, May 29 | Dallas at St. Louis | 8:00 PM | FOX |
Sat, May 30 | Houston at Birmingham | 3:00 PM | ESPN2 |
Sun, May 31 | Orlando at DC | 12:00 PM | ABC |
Sun, May 31 | Louisville at Columbus | 6:00 PM | FOX |
The Saturday and early Sunday results can settle the final playoff spot before Louisville kicks off. A Birmingham loss or an Orlando win clinches the spot for the Kings while they wait.
Bottom Line
Louisville is one win from the playoffs. The Kings can clinch on their own Sunday night in Columbus. They can also clinch earlier if Birmingham loses Saturday or if Orlando wins Sunday afternoon.
Birmingham needs all three results to break its way: a win over Houston, a Louisville loss, and an Orlando loss. One result going Louisville's way ends the race.
On seeding: the top two seeds host home playoff games. Orlando is one win from the No. 1 seed and is locked into a top-2 spot and a home game. St. Louis secures a top-2 seed, and a home game, with a win. DC has clinched a berth, but its seed runs from No. 2 to No. 4, and a loss sends the Defenders on the road.