The Columbus Aviators travel to Houston riding the momentum of their first victory after a tremendous 28-14 victory at home over the Dallas Renegades. The Houston Gamblers are coming off a close 22-24 loss in overtime at home to the Louisville Kings.
Game Details:
Date/Location: Sunday, April 26 / Shell Energy Stadium, Houston, TX
Kickoff Time: 12:00 PM ET, 9:00 AM PT
Channel: ABC
Odds:
Spread: Columbus -3 (-112), Houston +3 (-108)
Moneyline: Columbus -175, Houston +145
Over/Under: 45.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Columbus Aviators (1-3):
The Aviators are rolling off an impressive rushing demonstration that saw them set a UFL record for rushing attempts in a game that saw them set a UFL record for rushing attempts at 47 on their way to 201 rushing yards. The defense was also solid as they held Dallas to 232 total yards, and the secondary held the Renegades to 144 passing yards.
Jalen McClendon was efficient last week, completing 10 of his 15 passes for 126 yards and a touchdown. 2 of his incompletions were throwaways, making his adjusted completion 76.9% (10 of 13).
Houston Gamblers (1-3):
The Houston Gamblers struggled to find offensive continuity in week 4’s 22-24 overtime loss to Louisville. The team had 206 rushing yards in large part due to a 68-yard touchdown from Marcus Yarns. However, they only had 107 passing yards in a game that saw Nolan Henderson leave early due to injury and Taulia Tagovailoa replace him. Nolan Henderson is back listed as QB1 as the Gamblers look to turn their season around.
Nolan Henderson has completed 22 of his 39 passes (56.4%) for 263 yards with 2 interceptions. His numbers leave a lot of room for improvement, but he has shown the capacity to make some really nice plays last season, but needs to start showing more results, provided he is healthy enough to perform.
Aviators Keys to the Game
Keep Pounding the Rock
Last week, all 3 running backs had over 10 rushes for the Aviators as the offensive line moved bodies out of the way to keep the chains moving and control the time of possession, and more of that will be a winning ingredient.
Quick Passing Plays
Columbus still needs to get some traction in the passing game and could benefit by looking to do so through some quick pass designs, such as slants on crossing routes to get the ball out quickly.
Stop the Run Early
Houston has had success on the ground this season, and Columbus will be tasked with slowing them down.
Get Pressure in the Backfield
Houston has lacked continuity in the passing game in large part due to quarterback changes from injuries. Columbus can make it more difficult for the Gamlbers to find their footing in the passing game by making things uncomfortable in the backfield.
Aviators to Watch
5 RB John Lovett
Lovett led the way on the ground with 15 rushes for 80 yards last week and 3 missed tackles on the way by my count. Zaquadre White rushed 13 times for 43 yards, with defenders missing a tackle 7 times. Toa Taua rushed 11 times for 37 yards and a touchdown with 1 missed tackle on the way last week.
88 TE Alize Mack
Mack had the most receiving yards for the Aviators last week, catching 3 passes for 56 yards. Receiver Keke Chism caught 4 of his 5 targets for 50 yards and a touchdown.
56 DE Ron Stone Jr.
Ron Stone Jr. was also a problem for Dallas despite not getting on the stat sheet, as he had 8 pressures (2 of which were a secondary source of pressure on the play). He is tied for the 8th most pressures in the league with Kenny Willekes, past a blocker by my tracking, with 21, including 3.5 sacks.
48 DE Kenny Willekes
Willekes didn’t appear on the stat sheet last week, but got past a blocker to generate pressure 10 times, last week by my count (3 of which were a secondary source of pressure on the play). For how I track pressures, he has the 8th most in the league past a blocker so far at 21, including a sack and a half.
9 CB Cam Smith
Smith had a lockdown day in coverage as 5 targets came his way downfield with only 1 completion, which was for 14 yards. By my tracking, 11 targets have come his way, resulting in 5 completions for 38 yards and a touchdown.
Gamblers to Watch
RB 21 Marcus Yarns
Yarns rushed 8 times last week for 111 yards, including a 68-yard touchdown, with 3 missed tackles on the way. Marcus Major rushed 6 times for 49 yards with 2 missed tackles, while Jalen White rushed 11 times for 25 yards.
11 WR Justin Hall
Hall was the most targeted receiver for Houston last week, catching 4 of his 6 targets for 44 yards with 3 missed tackles forced. Jontre Kirklin caught 2 of his 3 targets for 33 yards.
65 C Jack Kramer
Center Jack Kramer and left guard Victor Curne both had 0 pressures allowed last week, by my tracking.
9w DE Malik Fisher
Fisher has been a force for Houston so far this season, recording 13 total tackles, including 3.5 sacks and 5 tackles for loss. He is tied for 7th in run stops among all positions by my tracking with 8 (4 solo, 4 shared) and 3rd in pressures past a blocker with 29, including his 3.5 sacks.
57 LB Anthony Hines III
Hines leads the team in total tackles with 22, including 7 run stops (4 solo, 3 shared). He’s been busy in coverage with 16 targets coming his way, resulting in 10 completions for 69 yards and a touchdown by my tracking (not including screen passes).
Depth Charts, Injuries, Inactives
Score Prediction:
Columbus is looking like a team that’s really coming together. Houston has some good strengths, but until the gears of the passing machine start to catch, Houston’s struggles may continue, although I would not be surprised to see that happen. Based on what we have seen, I am predicting Columbus to win 27-17.